A TRUMP TRIUMPH? – THAT'S WHAT ONE PREDICTION MODEL SAYS – AT 9:58 A.M. ET:  The claim is that this guy's model has predicted every presidential election but one going back 104 years.  I can't vouch for that, but the story is so fascinating.  From Daily Caller: 

A political science professor who claims his statistical model has correctly predicted the results of every election in the last 104 years has forecast that the odds of Donald Trump becoming America’s next president currently range from 97 percent to 99 percent.

The professor is Helmut Norpoth of Stony Brook University, reports The Statesman, the campus newspaper at the public bastion on New York’s Long Island.

Specifically, Norpoth predicts that Trump has a 97 percent chance of beating Hillary Clinton and a 99 percent chance of beating Bernie Sanders.

The predictions assume Trump will actually become the 2016 presidential nominee of the Republican Party.

And...

Norpoth’s general election formula measures candidates’ performances in primaries in caucuses to gauge party unity and voter excitement. It also focuses on certain patterns in electoral cycles. One major assumption is that the party which has just held the presidency for two consecutive terms is less likely to win a third term.

The model has been correct for every election since 1912 except for the 1960 election — which pitted winner John F. Kennedy against loser Richard Nixon.

In total, Norpoth observed, his forecasting formula he has created has been correct 96.1 percent of the time since 1912.

COMMENT:  Norpoth also says that Republicans have a 61% chance of winning the presidency with any candidate.  Well, we'll see after the election. 

Please note that Urgent Agenda doesn't make predictions.  And I predict that will continue.

February 25, 2016